Victoria outbreak: Reason why Covid-19 cases keep rising in Melbourne

There were two failures, which meant that Victorian proceedings continued to grow, and one tactical NSW was adopted and leveled off much sooner.

After a few days of stable incidents in Victoria, there was real hope, perhaps in time to reach the peak of the current wave and reopen the state.

And the miserable news came this morning Victoria broke the barriers to new cases in 2000 and recorded the highest daily infectious disease ever in Australia..

Authorities are currently struggling to find out why the number of cases in Victoria continues to grow, but new infections have plummeted in New South Wales by three-quarters.

Leading epidemiologists told that there are two main reasons why Victoria’s orbit seemed to be very high, and one main reason why New South Wales could have gone better. Told.

Key said an infectious disease doctor at the Australian National University Peter Collignon said the blockade rules in Victoria “have no subtle nuances.”

He added that the increase in cases should not stop the relaxation of restrictions, but does not recommend opening bars or gyms until the flow changes, as is done in New South Wales.

Victorian incident soars past New South Wales peak

Victoria’s 2297 cases on Thursday far exceeded Saturday’s 1965 record high.

In contrast, New South Wales cases peaked at 1603 on September 10, and are now 441, slightly above 347 since Wednesday.

Yeron Weimar, Covid-19-enabled coordinator in Victoria, said Thursday was a “challenging day.”

“In the next few days, we’ll see if the numbers we see today are one-off or will grow further,” he said.

Health officials say 7 out of 10 people were unvaccinated and half of the infections were under the age of 30.

Worryingly, the virus is now present in 1425 new households, which probably means more cases.

Ben Kawi, Chief Data Officer of Victoria, said:

But the peak of the outbreak is visible

ANU Professor Corignon told that while it may have seemed to have peaked, it is safer to call after seven days of consistent falls, rather than just a handful. ..

Nonetheless, he said the incident should soon diminish as the number of Sydney declines about seven weeks after the outbreak.

“There are more Melbourne, but I think it will probably be a little longer at the same time,” said Professor Corignon.

“I would be surprised if the numbers hadn’t declined by early November, not only because of higher immunization rates, but also because of the less infected season in summer.”

It was repeated by Professor Adrian Esterman, an epidemiologist at the University of South Australia.

“Overall, Victoria is approaching its peak,” he told

“Today’s high numbers could be random fluctuations, or many other reasons, including the fact that they are just 14 days after the spikes caused by the Grand Final Party.”

On Monday, Professor Esterman correctly predicted that the case would not be flat.

“”I think it’s still 3-4 weeks to reach its peak,” He said.

“Currently, Reff (reproduction number) is high, so we need to get closer to 1.”

Two reasons why Victoria is so numerous

Prime Minister Daniel Andrews has selected the AFL gathering as a potential superspreader event, alongside many other breaches by the Victorian people.

Professor Corignon did not object.

“I think there are two reasons why Melbourne is worse than Sydney.

“The vaccination rate is low and not as compliant as Sydney.”

Indeed, data analytics firm DSpark discovered more than 10km of mobility during the weekend blockade. Sydney was down 70%, but Melbourne was down only 40%..

However, Professor Corignon said that part of the responsibility for breaking the rule lies in the rule itself.

“The limits aren’t fine-tuned enough. You need to have rules that people are likely to follow, and you don’t have rules that people ignore.

“We need limits, but we need rules designed to maximize profits while minimizing social and psychological harm.”

Fatigue may have started long ago in the most blocked cities in the world. In addition, Melvernian had to withstand more regulations than Sydney cider.

Some of the more suspicious Victorian decisions were curfew, playground closures, picnic alcohol bans, and outdoor toilet closures.

Professor Corignon said restrictions in Victoria should focus on limiting the majority indoors, rather than making it difficult for people to be in places far less likely to catch Covid. ..

Immunization rates in Victoria are also low.

The outbreak in Sydney caused vaccination rates to skyrocket, doubling 76.5% of people over the age of 16 in New South Wales.

The double jab rate in Victoria is 61.5 percent. It lags behind NSW and ACT, as well as Tasmania, which has had few incidents for months.

Melbourne is currently full of jabs, but the supply of Pfizer vaccine was temporarily restricted. The government also states that it has achieved its 80% vaccination target by November 3. Of course, the higher the vaccination rate, the lower the number.

Tactics that worked well in NSW

“One of the reasons New South Wales has probably done better is to get in the way of getting more vaccines, especially for young people who are most likely to get infected, in areas with high cases. “Because of this,” said Professor Corignon.

Sydney’s “LGA of Concern” doubled its tests and flooded the suburbs with youth Pfizer.

Outbreaks in Victoria are still concentrated in the western suburbs of the city.

In areas like Truganina and Melton, there are the Islamic University of Altaqua and several major retail distribution centers, with Warat and Craigieburn in the northwest.

“In these areas, we need campaigns that are far more effective than what is happening now, and we need culturally sensitive information and influential people in the right language,” he says. I did.

Change of resumption plan

Andrews insisted that the government “realize the roadmap,” but today the state’s reopening plans are being reviewed, said Ben Kaui, deputy chief health officer.

Professor Corignon’s advice is to increase the number of small gatherings outdoors at low risk and relax restrictions on schools and subsequent bars and gyms.

“The outside is much safer than the inside, so let people do that.

“Even if a limited number of people are allowed to enter the house, we cannot hold a Superspreader event due to lack of people, especially if the rules require vaccination.

“There can be some increase in infection, but if people are immunized, the risk is small compared to the great benefits.

“There was the biggest outbreak at the bar, and opening the bar in front of school always hit me as a false priority in society.

“But we can’t say we’ll close them for the next five years because of the psychological and social costs to pay. But you’ll say they’re the last thing you open.”

For many, it was a gloomy day. However, Professor Corignon said he was confident that it would happen in case anyone suspected that the spikes would fall.

“All these things go like a wave and go up and down. It may not be zero, but it goes down and level off.

“That’s what happened in England and they have no restrictions.”

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